Appendix II Comparable Estimates from Eastern and Southern Africa

Eastern Africa SURVEY ZONE YEAR METH. EST. 95% CL
Kenya Amboseli 2002 IR1 1,100
2005 IR1 1,417
Tsavo 2002 AT3 8,344
2005 AT3 9,021
Tsavo (Outside) 2002 AT3 877
2005 AT3 1,335
Tanzania Selous 2002 AS3 65,811 ± 15,281
2006 AS3 70,406 ± 24,843
Serengeti 2000 AT3 1,631
2006 AT3 1,560
Rukwa 2002 AS3 263 ± 339
2006 AS2 1,200 ± 902
Ruaha-Rungwa 2002 AS3 24,103 ± 5,869
2006 AS2 35,409 ± 11,507
Mkomazi 2002 AT3 63
2005 AT3 41
Katavi-Rukwa (Outside) 2002 AS3 591 ± 804
2006 AS2 915 ± 606
Katavi 2002 AS3 4,897 ± 4,465
2006 AS2 4,102 ± 1,615
Ugalla River 1999 AS3 1,911 ± 1,313
2006 AS3 4,133 ± 1,778
      Totals for Eastern African sites: 2002 109,591 ± 17,040
2006 129,539 ± 27,505
      Total difference for Eastern African sites: 3.99 19,948 ± 32,356 NS

No rates of change calculated for Eastern Africa for lack of a significant result

Percentage of regional definite plus probable estimate accounted for by comparable estimates: 77.79%

Southern Africa SURVEY ZONE YEAR METH. EST. 95% CL
Botswana Northern Botswana 1999 AS2 120,604 ± 21,237
2006 AS3 153,620 ± 20,818
Mozambique Niassa 2002 AS2 13,061 ± 2,433
2004 AS2 12,477 ± 2,111
Magoe 2001 AS2 1,264 ± 1,359
2003 AS2 1,628 ± 794
Namibia Khaudom/Nyae-Nyae 2000 AS2 1,966 ± 973
2004 AS1 4,754 ± 2,339
Etosha 2002 AS1 2,417 ± 663
2004 AS1 2,057 ± 598
Caprivi 1998 AS2 4,576 ± 1,223
2004 AS2 8,725 ± 2,206
South Africa Balule 2002 AT3 80
2006 AT3 457
Marakele 2002 AT3 121
2005 IR1 110
Makuya 2002 AT2 27
2006 AT2 54
Makalali 2002 GT1 59
2005 GT1 72
Madikwe 2002 AT3 318
2005 AT3 455
Kruger 2002 AT2 10,459
2006 AT2 12,427
Knysna 2002 IR1 4
2005 IR1 4
Klaserie 2002 AT2 467
2006 AT2 569
Greater St Lucia 2002 AT3 31
2005 AT3 45
Atherstone 2002 AT3 32
2005 AT3 60
Addo Elephant 2002 IR1 337
2005 IR1 459
Phalaborwa 2002 AT2 23
2006 AT2 77
Pilanesberg 2002 AT3 142
2005 AT3 140
Itala 2002 GT1 61
2005 GT1 84
Venetia-Limpopo 2002 AT3 59
2005 AT3 61
Mkuzi 2002 IR1 28
2005 IR1 37
Welgevonden 2002 AT3 67
2005 AT3 100
Umbabat 2002 AT2 88
2006 AT2 163
Timbavati 2002 AT2 372
2006 AT2 712
Tembe 2002 AT3 140
2005 IR1 167
Selati 2002 GT1 56
2005 GT1 85
Sabie Sands 2002 AT2 757
2006 AT2 857
Pongola 2002 IR1 33
2005 IR1 55
Swaziland Mkhaya 2002 IR1 19
2005 IR1 15
Hlane 2002 IR1 20
2005 IR1 13
Zambia Mukungule 2001 AS3 156 ± 112
2003 AS2 156 ± 119
Mulobezi 1997 AS2 0
2004 AS2 55 ± 96
Sioma Ngwezi 1996 AT3 250 0
2005 AS2 385 ± 371
Sichifulo 1997 AS2 374 ± 686
2004 AS2 0
Rufunsa 1996 AS3 0
2003 AS2 0
Chanjuzi 2001 AS3 114 ± 214
2004 AS3 65 ± 81
Lunga-Luswishi 1997 AS2 0
2004 AS2 195 ± 169
Lukusuzi 1994 AS2 110 ± 190
2005 AS1 0 0
Luawata 2001 AS3 189 ± 274
2003 AS2 968 ± 652
Lower Zambezi 1996 AS2 232 ± 457
2003 AS2 1,477 ± 744
Kasonso-Busanga 1997 AS2 0
2004 AS2 401 ± 378
Chiawa 1996 AS2 48 ± 102
2003 AS2 45 ± 53
North Luangwa 2001 AS3 3,750 ± 1,076
2003 AS3 3,235 ± 695
Zimbabwe Sijarira 2001 AS2 33 ± 33
2006 AS2 488 ± 333
Save Valley 2001 AS1 535 ± 318
2003 AS1 527 ± 310
North Gokwe 2001 AS2 791 ± 621
2006 AS2 192 ± 172
Matusadona 2001 AS2 1,716 ± 603
2006 AS2 1,925 ± 443
Kariba 2001 AS2 2,373 ± 802
2006 AS2 3,715 ± 1,033
Chizarira 2001 AS2 5,011 ± 1,171
2006 AS1 3,071 ± 1,117
Chete 2001 AS2 1,219 ± 542
2006 AS2 971 ± 310
Zambezi Valley 2001 AS2 19,297 ± 2,493
2003 AS2 19,981 ± 2,392
Binga 2001 AS2 836 ± 385
2006 AS2 431 ± 373
Chirisa 2001 AS2 1,977 ± 1,091
2006 AS2 4,231 ± 1,260
      Totals for Southern African sites: 2002 196,699 ± 21,780
2005 243,053 ± 21,477
      Total difference for Southern African sites: 5.56 46,354 ± 30,588*

Average annual rate of increase for Southern African sites: 3.88% (CI 1.06% to 6.39%)

Percentage of regional definite plus probable estimate accounted for by comparable estimates: 75.74%

* statistically significant difference

NS not significant

      Summary for Southern and Eastern African sites combined
MEDIAN YEAR ESTIMATE 95% CL
      Totals for all sites listed 2002 306,290 ± 27,654
2005 372,592 ± 34,897
      Total difference for sites listed 4.99 66,302 ± 44,525*

Average annual rate of increase for all sites: 4.00% (CI 1.14% to 6.58%)

Percentage of continental definite plus probable estimate accounted for by comparable estimates: 67.14%

* statistically significant difference

NS not significant

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