Protected areas in 2023 : scenarios for an uncertain future, presented to the Vth World Congress on Protected Areas, Durban, South Africa, September 2003

As part of the preparations for the Vth World Parks Congress, a high-level team was assembled by IUCN to consider the long-term future of protected areas. They prepared three scenarios, plausible futures, rather than predictions: The Triple Bottom Line, where economic growth, social well-being and environmental sustainability were given equal treatment; the Rainbow, a world where globalization was replaced by regional alliances; and But Your Eden, where economics ruled. All three contained surprises.