Models

This report documents the modelled scenarios of local climate variability due to global climatic change, using the projected climate changes to modify the “no change”, 76-year long, monthly sub-catchment rainfall sequences, and average monthly evaporation values that serve as input to the hydrological catchment model that has been configured and calibrated for the Pangani Basin.

This publication has been prepared as part of the Flow Assessment Component of the Pangani River Basin Management Project. Its aim is to collect and synthesize present knowledge on the Pangani River system and its users, and to help promote an integrated approach to future water-allocation decisions.

This publication has been prepared as part of the Flow Assessment Component of the Pangani River Basin Management Project. Its aim is to collect and synthesize present knowledge on the Pangani River system and its users, and to help promote an integrated approach to future water-allocation decisions. This report document the configuration of the WEAP Water Resources Model and the way it was used to simulate scenarios and generate modified flow sequences at key points in the Pangani basin.

The report describes the best possible climate scenarios for the middle of the 21st century for the Pangani Basin, utilising a range of General Circulation Models (GCMs) and a state of the art statistical downscaling procedure. This should enhance understanding on the implications of future climate change on the water resources of the Basin for pragmatic planning.

In the late 1980s there were two campaigns to save African elephants. One banned international trade in ivory. The other established common property rights to elephants for local communities. Has either campaign saved the elephants? To answer this question, we constructed and solved two models, a biomass model and an age structured model. We conclude that in countries which successfully establish property rights, local communities will conserve elephants.